Is it in India’s Interest for PM Modi to visit Pakistan to attend Oct. SCO Summit?

• By Col (Dr) Rakesh Kumar Shrivastawa Registrar, PDEU, Gandhinagar

Ahmedabad, India’s foreign policy has long been characterized by its strategic engagement with various multilateral platforms to enhance its global influence and secure its national interests. One of the most significant of these platforms is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a Eurasian political, economic, and security alliance that has grown in both size and influence since its inception in 2001.

As India navigates its role within the SCO, the organization’s annual summits become pivotal events for shaping regional cooperation and addressing pressing geopolitical issues. The upcoming SCO Summit in October 2024, set to be hosted by Pakistan, has attracted particular attention due to the formal invitation extended to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi by Pakistan.

MEA India Viewpoint

Foreign minister S Jaishanker spoke about it. He said “I think the era of uninterrupted dialogue with Pakistan is over. Actions have consequences and in so far as Jammu and Kashmir is concerned I think 370 is done.” Maybe he meant that Pak should not expect India to reach out again. Pakistan has double crossed India multiple times so no more outreaches. MEA only confirmed that they have received the invite but there have been no decisions so far.

Minister Jaishanker made India’s position clear saying that, article 370 is done. This is the law that gave the special status to Jammu and Kashmir. India scrapped it 5 years ago and there is no going back to it. Pakistan blames this move for downgrading ties. Today Pakistan does not have High Commissioner in India and India has no High Commissioner in Pakistan. There are no bilateral visits, no formal bilateral trade and no discussions. However to improve relations, the question is who will make that push and India has no reason to give a try again.

Prime Minister Modi has repeatedly said neighbourhood first whether it’s Sri Lanka or Bangladesh or Nepal. However this policy has a clear exception, Pakistan. No country has hurt India, like Pakistan has over last many years. The relationship had a very predictable trajectory, India reaches out in good faith, some sort of progress is made but Pakistan’s Army spoils everything. Mr Vajpayee Bus Diplomacy before Kargil War and Mr Modi impromptu visit are the examples. Since 2019 even that has ended. India revoked Jammu and Kashmir special status and in response Pakistan recalled their High Commissioner from India.

Onus on Pakistan

Pakistan continues to fuel terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir. Earlier their focus was Kashmir now it is Jammu. Dozens of Terror attacks have been reported since 2021 in Jammu region which makes up 40% of army casualties and brings us to the current equation. Both sides have clear demands, India wants Pakistan to stop supporting terrorism whereas Pakistan wants India to restore Kashmir’s special status. India’s demand is legitimate and if Pak Government has the political will it is doable also. However Pakistan’s demand is not justified as Jammu and Kashmir is a domestic issue for India, it is Indian land and it’s an internal matter so how can one dictate domestic policy to another country.

Pakistan’s economy is going through a major crisis, they could use the trade and investments from India and we saw indications of that in the month of March this year when Pakistan’s foreign minister said that Islamabad would consider resuming trade but India rejected that possibility. Mr Jaishanker said trade and Terror cannot go hand in hand. The status quo is pretty clear, Pakistan needs India more than India needs Pakistan. Perhaps India is content to continue at the current level of relationship.

Jammu and Kashmir Elections

Legislative Assembly Elections are scheduled to be held in Jammu and Kashmir from 18 Sep to 01 Oct 2024. J&K will witness elections after 10 years and first one since revocation of Article 370. Some of the Parties are promising to restore Article 370 and some are propagating resumption of bilateral trade with Pakistan. India needs a tough posture in order to ensure elections are held peacefully and in transparent manner. The current stand to ignore Pakistan and isolate it is in India’s Interest and the country should not deviate from the same.

India’s Position

New Delhi has almost dismissed Islamabad as a failed State and an inconsequential neighbour. However there just one problem that the rest of the world may not share that opinion. Americans are selling weapons to Pakistan again, Gulf States are investing billions of dollars into Pakistan, even Russia is selling fuel and gas and Pak has close relations with China. In the short run Pakistan may not be a threat but with global support you never know Pakistan may emerge as a major and a more important threat. At present the onus is still on Pakistan to make a move but are they willing?

Last year India hosted the SCO Foreign minister’s summit and Pakistan’s foreign minister did fly down to India but nothing changed bilaterally. Now it’s not a question of hosting or visiting, it’s a question of what more can Pakistan offer not just in terms of engagement but in terms of actions too? If there is a clear Crackdown on terrorism India may reciprocate. If not India won’t.

The Geopolitical Significance of the SCO for India

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization serves as a crucial platform for India to expand its strategic presence in Eurasia, a region that holds immense geopolitical importance. Eurasia connects several key regions, including East Asia, South Asia, and Europe, making it a focal point for global power dynamics. By being an active member of the SCO, India is able to engage directly with Central Asian countries, Russia, and China on a range of issues, from security and counterterrorism to economic cooperation and cultural exchange.

India’s involvement in the SCO is also a strategic counterbalance to the influence of other major powers, particularly China. While India and China share a complex and often competitive relationship, the SCO provides a neutral space for dialogue and cooperation, allowing both countries to address regional issues in a multilateral setting. This is particularly important given China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has significant implications for the regional balance of power.

In addition to the above India uses this forum to Strengthening relations with Russia, engaging positively in Central Asia, combating terrorism and extremism in Eurasia, promoting International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and meeting its energy needs. Forum as a whole is very important to India.

Finally after discussing all issues, it if felt that isolation of Pakistan is the best bet today for India. It is for MEA to accept or Decline the invitation or Mr Jaishanker or any other leader may visit Pakistan but certainly not Mr Modi.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Western Times.