Russia – US Proximity: Beginning of New Global order

Implications of the meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian National Security Adviser Mike Waltz in Saudi Arabia

On February 18, 2025, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian National Security Adviser Mike Waltz held a high-level meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This diplomatic engagement marks a crucial development in US-Russia relations, especially against the backdrop of ongoing tensions surrounding the war in Ukraine, global security concerns, and shifting geopolitical alliances.

The meeting, brokered with Saudi mediation, has significant implications for future talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, who is seen as a key figure in potential peace negotiations. There were no dates decided for Trump – Putin meet and a lot of controversy was associated with absence of representatives from Ukraine and EU members. This meet was much more than finding peaceful solution of Russia Ukraine war. This article analyses importance of this meet in Russia – US relations and the beginning of new global order.

Importance of the Meeting in Light of a Possible Trump-Putin Discussion

With Donald Trump keenness to play a diplomatic role in resolving the Ukraine crisis, the Rubio-Waltz meeting sets the stage for a potential dialogue between Trump and Putin. Given Trump’s past interactions with Putin and his stated ambitions of brokering peace, this meeting could lay the groundwork for negotiations aimed at de-escalating the war.

The discussion likely involved setting conditions that both Russia and the US might find acceptable for a ceasefire or peace agreement, possibly leading to a Trump-Putin summit in the near future. Both Trump and Putin have taken adequate efforts to set the ground  in run up to this meet. Trump had a back to back discussion on Phone with Putin and Zelensky on Feb 13 and US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth made a statement that US does not think NATO membership and full restoration of territory is feasible for Ukraine. In a surprise move Russia released US citizen Kalob Byers ahead of the diplomatic talk.

Future of US-Russia Relations

US-Russia relations have been strained due to economic sanctions, military confrontations, and allegations of war crimes. However, this meeting signals a possible shift towards pragmatic engagement. While Washington continues to pressure Moscow over its actions in Ukraine, there may be emerging incentives for both sides to improve relations. Russia’s growing economic dependence on China, coupled with its need for access to Western markets, may push Moscow to seek a better relationship with the US to reduce its reliance on Beijing.

Possibility of Ending the Ukraine War

One of the most significant outcomes of this diplomatic engagement could be the advancement of peace negotiations for Ukraine. If the US and Russia reach common ground on security guarantees and territorial disputes, there is a chance for a ceasefire. However, key sticking points remain i.e. Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Russian occupation of Eastern Ukrainian territories, and security concerns for both NATO and Russia. The US may push for a settlement that includes limited concessions from Ukraine, while Russia may demand recognition of its hold on certain regions.

Impact on Ukraine and the European Union

For Ukraine, this meeting raises concerns about being side-lined in peace negotiations involving its future. European leaders, who have strongly backed Kyiv, are wary of any US-Russia dialogue that does not include direct Ukrainian participation. The EU, which has played a central role in supporting Ukraine militarily and economically, may view this diplomatic manoeuvre as an attempt by the US to unilaterally dictate the terms of peace, potentially undermining European security interests. This could also have a serious implications of security situation in EU countries. With no guarantee of NATO umbrella the EU countries will start thinking of other options leading to Arms race.

Future of Ukraine’s NATO Membership and Territorial Integrity

A critical aspect of any negotiations will be Ukraine’s NATO ambitions. Russia has consistently opposed Ukraine’s membership in the alliance, citing security threats. If a peace deal is brokered, it may involve Ukraine agreeing to neutrality in exchange for security guarantees. Additionally, the prospect of Ukraine regaining all its lost territory remains uncertain. Russia is unlikely to willingly withdraw from regions it now controls, making territorial negotiations a contentious issue.

US Interest in these negotiations

Donald Trump has expressed interest in positioning himself as a peacemaker on the global stage. If he plays a central role in mediating an end to the Ukraine war, he may leverage this as part of his political legacy and even pursue recognition, such as the Nobel Peace Prize. However, achieving a lasting peace that satisfies all stakeholders—including Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and NATO – would be a formidable challenge. In case of Arms race in Europe, US is going to be the biggest gainer. US is also likely to exploit huge market of Russia both in terms of consumables and high end technology which Russia needs the most.

Russia’s Interest in Better Relations with the US

Russia’s interest in mending ties with the US stems from multiple factors, including crippling economic sanctions, war crimes accusations, and a desire for economic revival. The prolonged conflict in Ukraine has drained Russia’s resources, and better relations with Washington could help reduce financial strain. Moscow may also be seeking a pathway to reintegration into the global economy, particularly in sectors where Western technology and investment are crucial.

Breaking the China-Russia Nexus

One of the underlying strategic goals of the US in engaging with Russia is to weaken its alliance with China. Since the start of the Ukraine war, Russia has become increasingly dependent on China for economic and military support. If Russia perceives that improved relations with the US and the West could ease sanctions and aid its economic recovery, it might consider distancing itself from Beijing. This would be a significant shift in global geopolitics, potentially altering the balance of power. In Russia – China friendship, Russia was always second to China which was not liked by most Russians. This changed relationship may help in restoring Russia’s old glory.

Implications for China

If Russia moves toward improved relations with the US, China could find itself diplomatically and strategically isolated. Beijing has benefited from Russia’s dependence on it, particularly in securing energy resources at discounted rates. A potential thaw in US-Russia relations could diminish China’s leverage over Moscow, impacting China’s broader geopolitical ambitions, particularly in areas like Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region.

Implications in West Asia Geopolitics

Meeting was held at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on the mediation by Saudi Arabia. The three powerhouses in West Asia are Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Turkey. Iran is at its lowest, facing setbacks in Syria and with Hezbollah. Turkey has long term disputes with Russia but was big gainer in Syria liberation and was looking for a greater role in West Asia. With this move Saudi’s have gained an upper hand which is likely to develop into strong relations with US and a good relation with Russia and a leadership role in West Asia. Russia is also likely to hold on to its Air base in Syria i.e. Khmeimim Air base on Mediterranean Sea coast.

Implications for India

For India, the US-Russia engagement has complex ramifications. India has historically maintained strong ties with both nations and has balanced its diplomatic relations carefully. If Russia shifts its alignment away from China, India could find a more favourable strategic environment, reducing its concerns about the growing China-Russia partnership. Additionally, a reduction in US-Russia tensions may allow India to continue its defence and energy cooperation with Moscow without facing pressure from the West.

Colonel Dr Rakesh Shrivastawa  Registrar, PDEU