KILLING OF ISMAIL HANIYEH – HAMAS LEADER ‘KILLING MANY BIRDS WITH ONE STONE’

Ismail Haniyeh, topmost leader of Hamas was assassinated on Wednesday 31 July 2024 at a Guest House in Iran at 2 AM. He was at Iran, one of the closest allies of Hamas, for the swearing in ceremony of Iranian President Mr. Masoud Pezeshkian. Haniyeh was the unofficial ruler of Gaza and possibly dictated Hamas actions both military and diplomatic, during the conflict. His death is poised to have far reaching consequences not only for West Asia but for the complete world.

We can safely say that the action is much more than meets the eye or ‘killing many birds with one stone’. The assassination marks a significant development in the ongoing Israel, Hamas conflict, Iran’s own pride including role of Iran in Hamas and Hezbollah actions, Houthi militants actions in Red Sea, neighbours of Israel i.e. Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt and finally the salient /not so silent players in the game i.e. USA, Russia and China.

Ismail Haniyeh’s Role in Hamas.

He was a prominent figure of Hamas for quarter of a century. Haniyeh from a humble background, rose through ranks, eventually becoming PM of Palestinian Authority in 2006. He assumed the leadership of Gaza after the violent split between two main bodies of Palestine i.e. Fatah and Hamas in 2007.

He was responsible for negotiating complex alliances in favour of Hamas and was staunch enemy of Israel. He ensured strong Hamas military capabilities in order to take on Israel. He was the Chief Negotiator of Hamas in Israel – Hamas peace talks in both Qatari brokered peace talks and US led peace talks. According to US, the peace which was days away will get derailed with his killing.

Immediate Reaction and Escalation

The killing may affect Israel – Hamas war in both ways i.e. escalation or peace process. It may escalate the situation in Gaza with increased attacks from Gaza to Israel or alternatively due to the power vacuum in Hamas leadership, may lead to Hamas accepting release of hostages and peace talks on terms of Israel. Lot of this will also depend on the support from many of the Hamas allies including retaliatory actions by Iran.

Recent Activities in West Asia as Related to Israel – Hamas War

After the Heinous Hamas attack on Israel on 17 Oct. 2023 and commencement of Israel Hamas war, over 10 months and counting, the end does not seem to be in sight. Some of the recent activities in last few days are:

• Israel attack on diplomatic facility in Damascus that killed seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on 01 Apr 2024 and further Iran guarded retaliation on Israel with more than 300 missiles and drones on 13 April. Further Israel attack on Iran’s S-300 Long Range Air Defence System at Irfahan as a demonstrative retaliation.
• 19 May 2024, the Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, died in a Helicopter crash. Though no foul play has been indicated but it made Iran lose focus of support to Hamas.
• 13 July Hamas military Chief Mohammed Dief was killed in Gaza Airstrike which was revealed and confirmed only couple of days back.
• Houthi’s missile attack at Israel and Israel air strike at Hodeidah Port at Yemen. Israel hit at a range of 3000 kms.
• Brig rank commander of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran was killed at Damascus in Syria.
• Hezbollah Commander Fuad Shukr was killed by Israel airstrike at Beirut, Lebanon’s capital in retaliation to a rocket attack in Israel Golan heights killing 12 people, mostly children.
• Finally the latest death of Haniyeh at Tehran.

Options with Iran

The killing of Haniyeh has happened on Iran soil that too when the Hamas leader was there to attend the official function as a guest and staying in the most secured zone guarded by IRGC troops. Latest reports suggests that the bomb was planted in the guest house almost two months prior and was detonated remotely at 2 AM. Mr. Ayatollah Khamenei was informed in the night. At 7 AM he summoned the members of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and issued an order to strike Israel in retaliation.

This is the second or third time in last few months that Iran has been challenged by Israel directly. Full-fledged offensive on Israel by Iran is not a possibility however targeting Israel by missiles/drones or rockets from Lebanon, Syria or Gaza is an option. Israel, with support of US, must be prepared for both offensive and defensive action in this kind of scenario. Israel has celebrated the killing but have not yet taken the responsibility for the killing. A very wise move by Israel as no Airspace was violated or no direct involvement of Israel can be pointed out.

Role of USA in this Situation.

US Secretary of State has said that ‘USA was not aware of or involved in this matter’. He further said that there is no point in speculating on the outcome as there are many uncertainties. However, it is well known fact that USA has full support to Israel in case the situation escalates. USA is in no mood to let go its hold on West Asia and let China and Russia have a greater say in the Region.

China and Russia

In last few years China and Russia have become very close to Iran. In fact the West is talking about the un-holy nexus between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. China was a major factor in fostering reconciliation among different Palestinian factions. The recent Beijing Declaration has raised hopes in addressing long pending Middle East issues. The uncertainty arising due to death of two top leaders of Hamas may derail the peace process and can put China’s efforts in vein. Russia is a major supplier of arms to Iran and in case of escalation it will have a role to play or can also help in de-escalation of the situation arising out of the crisis.

Impact on Israeli-Palestinian Relations

The assassination of two top Hamas leaders like Haniyeh and Dief is likely to have profound implications for Israeli-Palestinian relations. Peace talks, which is stalled for years, could become even more challenging to revive. Trust between the two sides, might further erode. The Palestinian Authority, led by President Mahmoud Abbas, might find it harder to engage in negotiations with Israel amid heightened tensions and violence.

The killing could also affect the Palestinian public’s perception of both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. Hamas might gain increased support among Palestinians who view Haniyeh’s death as a heroic sacrifice, while the Palestinian Authority could be seen as ineffective or complicit. This shift in public opinion could further complicate efforts to achieve a unified Palestinian stance in future negotiations.

How the Incident can be Termed as ‘Killing Many Birds with One Stone’

Hamas has been substantially weakened by killing of its top leader and probably facing huge challenges in the leadership.

Ismail Haniyeh has been killed on Iran’s soil, by a bomb planted in the Guest House months back. This is a direct attack on Iran’s pride. Iran wants to retaliate but has very limited options and probably proof.

Hezbollah and Houthi militants who are supported by Iran are finding themselves cornered. Iran may use them to retaliate but their top leadership is also scared now.

Russia and China are finding the situation very tricky as the incident has no direct involvement of Israel. Their standing in West Asia support is going to take a beating.

USA finds itself in advantageous situation as it can safely deny its involvement but can feel very relieved with the outcome. It may lead to end of Israel Hamas war and a cease fire or can escalate the situation which only the time will tell.

Col Dr Rakesh Kumar (Faculty International Relations,  Pandit Deendayal Energy University)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Western Times. Through email [email protected]